Like many Irish people living abroad, I’ve been paying a lot of attention to the political and economic situation back home. Unfortunately it looks increasingly likely that Ireland is going to be very volatile over the next 6-12 months. The Lisbon Treaty is coming up in early October, which is extremely important to ratify but a huge distraction in terms of rebalancing the economy and overall employment.
There is also a budget coming in October where details of roughly $5billion in cuts/savings in public expenditure will be announced which will face very heavy resistance from the unions and large sections of the general public.
But of course, our headlines will also be dominated by the NAMA legislation due to be debated shortly. It is probably the most controversial and most important legislation that our country has ever debated. I’m far from convinced myself that the government are taking the correct course of action with this.
No doubt many politicians and bankers are wishing they’d taken a different career path!
Alas, the Irish economy is far from recovery and property prices need to fall an awful lot more before they’ll get this investor interested. However, and belatedly, other countries are positively brimming with opportunities.
Encouraging Signs of Economic Recovery
Led by China, Asia’s emerging economies have revived fastest, with several expanding at annualised rates of more than 10% in the second quarter of 2009. A few big rich economies also returned to growth, albeit far more modestly, between April and June. Japan’s output rose at an annualised pace of 3.7%, and both Germany and France notched up annualised growth rates of just over 1%.
Australia is doing exceptionally well and is, by some measures, the best peforming advanced economy over the past year. Most economies are still smaller than they were a year ago. On a quarterly basis, though, they are turning the corner.
Closer to home, and in complete contrast to Ireland, our cousins in the UK had the ability to pump enormous amounts of liquidity into their financial systems to help kick start their economy. While they will have huge public debt as a consequence – the ripple effects of this liquidity on their housing markets has been dramatic.
Every single region in England and in Wales recorded a monthly rise in house prices between June-July 2009. The average monthly increase was 1.7% – the biggest in five years.
Mortgage approvals are now at a 17 month high and 77% more mortgages were approved in July 2009 compared to July 2008. The number of transactions is also increasing steadily.
Torcana Ltd is a property investment consultancy dealing with investments in foreclosed property, distressed property, and discounted property in USA, Spain, UK, and Panama. For more information please visit: – http://www.torcana.com
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