Currency Issues and Revealing Housing Stats in Florida

With the pound and euro continuing to strengthen relative to the dollar, your hard earned cash can now stretch very far indeed. If you wanted $60,000 in late May it would have cost you around €45,000/£40,000. Now it will cost €40,000/£36,500. That’s quite a difference.

So a weak dollar is great news for those seeking to purchase US property from abroad, but as many of our readers working in the financial industry will know, the prospect of a consistently weak dollar is of real concern to finance ministers, company bosses and traders around the world.

If one were to listen to the US authorities the message is pretty much the same every week, “it is very important for the US to have a strong dollar“. They haven’t been taking much action to backup that message though.

As any first year economics student will tell you, a weak currency boosts exports and restricts demand for imports, thus improving the economy and lowering the trade deficit. This might suit the US in the short term but it certainly doesn’t suit the EU or Asia, both of whom want to sell their goods and services to the US as cheaply as possible to kick start their own economies.

The other big worry revolves around the strategies big countries like the US, Britain, Germany, Japan and China will pursue to withdraw the massive assistance they’ve been providing to prop up their economies. That’s an article for another newsletter though.

Florida – Very Revealing Statistics…

I’ve been making quite a big effort over the past six months to emphasize the speed at which the Florida market has been recovering from the credit crunch and property slowdown. Yesterday morning I received two graphs from one of my main contacts on the ground that will illustrate this far more clearly than my words have ever done.

Graph 1: Supply in Florida has been falling dramatically for almost a year. This is because developers are not starting new construction projects and prices of existing stock have been slashed by up to 75%, thereby boosting consumer and investor demand (with a little help from US subsidies for first time buyers).

Graph 2: The market bottomed out in December 2007 and it took another 15 months before activity reverted back to late 2006 levels. Over the past six months, it has been quite frantic, which huge volumes of new contracts being issued to a wide variety of buyers.

Breaking through the pain barrier

In short – developers, banks, agents, investors and homeowners all had to go through a world of pain between September 2006 and September 2009. Their counterparts in Ireland, Britain and mainland Europe have had it easy in comparison.

Prices are still low, but they are not going lower, of that I am quite sure. There will always be good deals out there for the shrewed and well connected buyer, but the days of snapping up a high quality unit for $50-60k that used to cost $200-$230k are numbered.

Torcana Ltd is a property investment consultancy dealing with investments in foreclosed property, distressed property, and discounted property in USA, Spain, UK, and Panama. For more information please visit: – http://www.torcana.com

Interview with Florida Real Estate Insider Part 1

Torcana.com Sales & US Sourcing Manager David Shaw has his finger on the Florida disclosure market like few others.

He joins us today to discuss his experiences with distressed US properties over the past year. You’ll find a transcript of this interview below (also available on www.torcana.com/podcasts), where David discusses the main concerns of investors today and gives his opinion on where the best investment opportunities will be.

Q) Hi David. What do you feel are the biggest challenges in your day to day position as Sales and Sourcing Manager for Torcana?

Thanks Colin. My main challenge is communicating the furious pace of the distressed USA property market to clients. With property activity moving at a snail’s pace in Ireland and the UK, there is an understandable but hugely misleading feeling on this side of the pond that there is plenty of time to invest in distressed assets and that it is a “buyers market”. As the monthly statistics have been showing, the reality is completely different.

Q) What changes account for this fast pace?

Well, for starters, the blind fear and panic of late 2008 and early 2009 are now distant memories.

Firstly, regular investors are back and like all smart investors, they are ruthlessly snapping up the best properties in the best locations at the best prices.

Secondly, regular Americans with good credit rating have been availing of large housing grants (up to $8000) and high LTV mortgages (up to 97%) to purchase their own homes at 10 year lows. This is having a profound effect on the market.

Thirdly, capital has been flowing back to private equity investors, pension funds and hedge funds. These are the silent whales of the market and they are literally hovering up thousands of foreclosure properties before they even register on a normal investor’s radar.

Total housing inventory is 40% down on last year and real bargains on high end foreclosure properties are like hens teeth. I have seen seasoned operators bidding cash on 5 or 6 deals before getting one of them accepted.

Q) What is your reading of the US housing market?

The bad news is that opportunities for easily purchasing a property at the very bottom of the US market are gone. This isn’t necessarily making front page news in The Times but statisticians and reporters tend to print yesterdays news.

There are two fundamental market forces at play. There is the “real market” which comprises 90% of existing US residential property. This stock may have lost significant value in the last few years but it is neither distressed nor foreclosed and the vast majority of it is not for sale.

The other, temporary market is the “distressed market” which completely undermines all efforts of the real market to sell surplus stock. This is because the “distressed market” as you will guess, is comprised of foreclosed and distressed property from banks and developers.

This market is the only show in town as far as bargain hunters are concerned, and it is our knowledge of the main players in this market and the process by which we help clients purchase, tenant, maintain and resell these assets that makes Torcana stand out from the crowd.

Contact Info:

Colin Murphy

29 Ballsbridge Rd, Dublin 4, Ireland
Dublin, Ireland, 28003
Telephone +353 1 4434 466
Fax: +353 1 258 6016
Website: http://www.torcana.com
Email: investments@torcana.com

How to profit from other peoples irrationality during the Recession

I recently read a great quote from Noel Whittaker (Australian financial columnist). It struck me as particularly relevant for those who are unsure of where or how to make their next important financial move.

“Life is full of uncertainties. Future investment earnings and interest and inflation rates are not known to anybody. However, I can guarantee you one thing.. those who put an investment program in place will have a lot more money when they come to retire than those who never get around to it”

Apart from working, investing is the only method of generating long term financial independence. From a personal point of view, I’ve made more money from my investments than I have from the various salaries and dividends I’ve drawn over the past 15 years.

It isn’t easy though. There are a lot of misconceptions out there, and much of it is caused by internet misinformation. At least once a week a client will call me to say they have spotted a deal on the internet or through a US agent that seems too good to be true and they are either wondering if there is a catch or if I could help them secure it. Sometimes I’ll have a closer look and within 20 minutes or so it’s usually apparent why it is being advertised at such a low price.

The internet is crammed with old, out of date and random opinions. Using the internet as an investment guide makes complete sense but relying completely on the internet can be a little like “self diagnosing”. You start with a pain in your thumb and end up with a terminal disease. This is a complex market and I think it is important to seek advice from people who deal with it on a daily basis.

Let’s take Florida as an example. There was an awful lot of irrational behavior on display in Florida during the boom years. This irrationality forced prices too high and placed unwarranted trust in developers promising they would build luxury resorts that potential renters would flock to.

That property boom has bust, and the prices for certain properties in wealthy locations are completely irrational in the other direction – i.e. they being sold at too large a discount. While the instinct to wait for the macro economy to recover and “normality” to return before investing is understandable, it could turn out to be a counterproductive strategy if your aim is to create wealth for the future.

There are still quite a few areas within Florida where high rental yields are available and the potential for capital appreciation is huge.

Torcana Ltd is a property investment consultancy dealing with investments in foreclosed property, distressed property, and discounted property in USA, Spain, UK, and Panama. For more information please visit: – http://www.torcana.com

Is there anything good about a recession?

We’re now in the final quarter of 2009, traditionally one of the busiest times of the year for businesses. This year is radically different to most of course, because we’re still trying to get out of a severe recession. Others might call it a slowdown, but I’m not particularly fond of that description – recessions tend to shake things up rather than slow them down.

A recession will expose weak business models, destroy bloated companies and create unemployment – this has been well documented. For stronger and healthier individuals and organizations, a recession will reveal hidden strengths, create new opportunities and release pent up energy. Companies can hire top class people on the cheap. Talented executives in large corporations will find their bosses’ much more willing to listen to ideas for developing new businesses and revenue streams.

Most importantly, at least from my narrow point of view, a recession means that distressed assets can be bought for absolute song.

The bad news is that opportunities for easily purchasing a property at the very bottom of the US market are gone. This isn’t necessarily making front page news in The Times but statisticians and reporters tend to print yesterdays news.

There are two fundamental market forces at play. There is the “real market” which comprises 90% of existing US residential property. This stock may have lost significant value in the last few years but it is neither distressed nor foreclosed and the vast majority of it is not for sale.

The other, temporary market is the “distressed market” which completely undermines all efforts of the real market to sell surplus stock. This is because the “distressed market” as you will guess, is comprised of foreclosed and distressed property from banks and developers. This market is the only show in town as far as bargain hunters are concerned.

One of my main challenges is communicating the furious pace of the distressed USA property market to clients. With property activity moving at a snail’s pace in Ireland and the UK, there is an understandable but hugely misleading feeling on this side of the pond that there is plenty of time to invest in distressed assets and that it is a “buyers market”. As the monthly statistics have been showing, the reality is completely different.

For starters, the blind fear and panic of late 2008 and early 2009 are now distant memories. Regular investors are back and like all smart investors, they are ruthlessly snapping up the best properties in the best locations at the best prices.

Secondly, regular Americans with good credit ratings have been availing of large housing grants (up to $8000) and high LTV mortgages (up to 97%) to purchase their own homes at 10 year lows. This is having a profound effect on the market.

Thirdly, capital has been flowing back to private equity investors, pension funds and hedge funds. These are the silent whales of the market and they are literally hovering up thousands of foreclosure properties before they even register on a normal investor’s radar.

Total housing inventory is 40% down on last year and real bargains on high end foreclosure properties are like hens teeth. I have seen seasoned operators bidding cash on 5 or 6 deals before getting one of them accepted.

Torcana Ltd is a property investment consultancy dealing with investments in foreclosed property, distressed property, and discounted property in USA, Spain, UK, and Panama. For more information please visit: – http://www.torcana.com

Torcana hails growing confidence in property and financial markets

As Dusty Springfield famously sang, “the world goes round without even a sound, and it looks like summer is over”.

According to Colin Murphy, Director of Torcana.com, Dusty was spot on regarding the second part of that lyric but the property and financial worlds were making plenty of noise over the past few months.

“Stockmarkets have rebounded, as have equities and commodities” states Murphy, an expert in distressed property sales in UK and Florida. “Investors have regained their appetites for debt and the interest rates at which banks lend to each other has fallen back to near pre-crisis levels. Ben Bernanke, the Fed Reserve chief, has announced that the worst recession since 1929 was “very likely over at this point”. The Sage of Omaha himself, told CNBC last Wednesday that “the US housing crisis was over”.

“Ben Bernanke and Warren Buffett aren’t exactly prone to hype and their word is more than good enough for me”, he continued.

“Confidence is also growing rapidly amongst large investors. I’m not just talking about hedge funds starting to actually buy shares again rather than short them, but also about pension funds and private equity groups buying huge amounts of distressed property in places like Florida.

Twice in the last 4 weeks I’ve seen developments with 100-300 units for sale taken off the market because single groups have purchased them outright, swiping the rug out from under the feet of those who were considering purchasing one or two units”.

Now that decent mortgages are finally available for foreigners and inventory levels have fallen from 23 months to 8 months in 2009 alone, there will not be many once in a generation bargains left after the end of this quarter.

Or as Dusty would have put it “the breeze hurries by without even goodbye”

For further information, please see www.torcana.com

Contact Info:

Colin Murphy
29 Ballsbridge Rd, Dublin 4, Ireland
Dublin, Ireland, 28003
Telephone +353 1 4434 466
Fax: +353 1 258 6016
Website: http://www.torcana.com
Email: investments@torcana.com